Navigating political uncertainty: Cash flow forecasting and scenario planning for Canadian businesses

Daniel Ma:

I've built enough models to know that the only thing you can say with certainty about the future is that there will be uncertainty.

Narrator:

Welcome to Accounting for the Future, a BDO Canada podcast for financial leaders to navigate change and achieve business growth. We'll uncover the challenges financial leaders may not have dealt with yesterday, but will definitely have to manage for the future.

Anne-Marie Henson:

Hello and welcome to Accounting for the Future. I'm your host, Anne-Marie Henson, and I'm happy to welcome today our guest, Daniel Ma, who's a partner in BDO's financial advisory practice, where he specializes in valuations and modeling. His experience includes valuing business interests, intangible assets, and complex financial instruments for transaction advisory, compliance, and litigation support purposes. He also leads the financial modeling practice at BDO, where he helps clients develop models to engage, budgeting, strategic planning, and informed decision-making. Daniel and I also happen to have a lot of clients in common, who have these complex needs. So Daniel, welcome to the podcast. I'm really happy to have you here.

Daniel Ma:

All right. Thanks so much, Anne-Marie. Happy to be here.

Anne-Marie Henson:

I think it's really important for us to level set in terms of where we are right now. I know that this show is called Accounting for the Future, but with regards to navigating political uncertainty, there are certainly a lot of things that are happening right now that are impacting Canadian companies, as well as American ones and some globally, in terms of what's happening with regards to potential regulation changes. So, we are February 4^th, 2025 today, and Donald Trump, who was recently inaugurated just a few weeks ago, as the President of the United States, had recently announced that he was imposing tariffs on most of Canadian exported goods for about 25%, with energy and some other items that we're going to be experiencing tariffs a few weeks from now. Canada responded with some retaliatory tariffs, and since then, there seems to have been some discussions that have been had that have led Donald Trump to, at minimum, put a pause on these tariffs for 30 days.

So, by the time this podcast episode airs, we really don't know where we're going to be with these tariffs. Everyone's crossing their fingers that it was enough to be able to move Donald Trump away from imposing tariffs, but we really just don't know. And so, that's why we have you here, Daniel, is to talk us through, certainly, this uncertainty, but also others and how CFOs and business leaders can better navigate these uncertainties, be able to sort of forecast different scenarios, plan better, have better discussions with their stakeholders, and essentially weather the storm or even thrive through these kinds of situations. So, I'll start with the first question, keeping with the tariff discussion here about the initial intention, which was to impose a 25% tariff on most goods that are exported from Canada to the United States. How can businesses proactively prepare for these kinds of changes as they relate to tariff legislation, and what are some of the implications that you can talk through about these tariffs on Canadian businesses?

Daniel Ma:

For sure, and I think that's a wide-ranging question too in terms of all the impacts and the implications of these potential tariffs, and I think we mentioned that this podcast is being recorded on February 4^th. I think it's almost important to say it's February 4^th at 3:00 PM, because it seems like things are really changing by the hour, and so what we saw last night was a rush to midnight, and then finally, and very thankfully, a pause on the tariffs, right? And there's going to be supposed concessions that are coming out of the Canadian side, in terms of a $1.3 billion border plan, which actually was previously announced before last night. So, curiously enough, that was added as an incremental win by the Trump administration, but there were also other elements too in terms of listing cartels as terrorists, creating a Canadian-US joint strike force to combat organized crime and also appointing a fentanyl czar.

So, a few changes from the political front that are helping to put a pause on these tariffs, and I think the question becomes, are these tariffs really being used as a real threat, or are they being used almost as a bludgeon to get other countries to make concessions towards Trump's American first policies? Looking at the companies that we work with and the ones that are affected, really, there are two categories, exporters and importers, right? And so, obviously, if the US is putting tariffs onto Canadian goods, companies in Canada that are exporting goods to the US are going to face reduced demand, right? Because their goods and services are just going to be comparatively more expensive than a domestically made American product, and so that presents challenges for Canadian companies that are selling into the United States. And so, what can they do to prepare? And this is by no means an exhaustive list, but there are a variety of strategies that could be employed in the short term, things like reviewing your concentration of US buyers.

Perhaps you would also want to consider increasing the concentration of sales, both back to domestic, Canadian sales, as opposed to sales to the United States, or perhaps looking to sell more to countries that don't have these tariffs and are more friendly to Canada, at least in the near term. Also, might make sense to set funds aside. You're probably looking at reduced sales. How's that going to impact your ability to cover the costs that you otherwise would have to expend? And perhaps there could also be some reduction in production, so that is a very serious consideration that companies could be facing in the short term, where if you're looking at reduced demand, you don't really need to produce as many goods. Does that mean layoffs? Does that mean, again, reduced production, which obviously, if taken across the board, is not good from a Canadian economic perspective. And so, that's just one side of the equation. On the other side of the equation, you have, "What's the Canadian government going to do?" The Canadian government has been very forceful in terms of its response.

It's basically looking at dollar for dollar retaliatory tariffs, and so that impacts companies in Canada that are importing goods, right? So, it hits both sides of the chain, because now when we have importers that are paying 25% tariffs on goods that are being imported for the United States, that can put a lot of headaches in the supply chains. And so, what does that translate into? Well, it likely translates into increased prices for those goods being sold in Canada, which likely would lead to reduced demand, and so, again, that that's a tricky situation for importers to consider. On that side, again, what can we do, at least in the near term? Well, some of the strategies include putting aside funds, because again, you have to now account for the fact that a lot of your input goods are perhaps 25%, if not more, expensive as a result of the tariffs and duties that you're now paying, that you otherwise wouldn't have had to pay. The other thing that you could look into as well is perhaps what's called front loading or stockpiling, and so we're actually seeing a lot of large companies that are doing this.

At least in the States, companies like Walmart, Columbia Sportswear, they're actually, basically, pre-buying all their inventory, stockpiling it in advance of having to pay these tariffs, right? So they're kind of getting ahead of the tariffs, but is that something that is realistically achievable by smaller, midsize companies? It could be challenging. There are very real challenges with warehousing storage if you front load all these goods, where are you going to keep them, right? If you don't have a large distribution center. So, definitely challenges on both sides. Then, once you look at the wider macroeconomic situation that underlies it, it becomes even trickier. When we think about the impact, for example, on interest rates, there's no real consensus in terms of how these tariffs would impact interest rates, right? On the one hand, it sounds like the introduction of these tariffs are going to create heavy, recessionary headwinds, and typically what happens in times of recession, the Bank of Canada would like to lower interest rates to spur economic growth to fight off those recessionary pressures.

On the one hand, we might think interest rates are actually going to come down. But on the other hand, if you look at the impact of tariffs, that creates inflationary pressures, because now things are getting more expensive. We've just lived through the Bank of Canada bumping up rates to historical highs over the last few years, and that was the response to inflation. Are there pressures to actually increase the interest rate as a function of the inflationary pressure? A lot of implications, beyond the microcosm of companies that are operating, also including just that macroeconomic view, and those decisions, those policy decisions, are going to have pretty long-lasting impacts. So, a lot of uncertainty, and I think that's really the theme of what we're chatting about today, right? Is that we're living really in times of uncertainty. As a result of that, how do we best navigate that? What are strategies >we can employ to just give us a little bit more clarity for us to operate with?

Anne-Marie Henson:

Yeah, exactly. Well, I'm happy you mentioned all those things, and again, these are all potential solutions. Some may work for some companies and others may not, right? It really depends on specific situations. It is difficult to see business owners right now struggling with what to do and how to move forward because of how volatile the last few years have been in general, right? You talked about these large companies that have been stockpiling inventory. I remember a time not that long ago. It was, what? Three years ago, where during COVID there were really big issues with regards to overseas shipments. There were goods that were literally stuck on the water in no man's land for months on end, and companies quickly decided to pivot from this just in time inventory that had been employed for a number of years to stockpiling, and then demand went down, and so a lot of companies were stuck paying warehousing costs and unable to sell a lot of the inventory they had stockpiled as a result of the issues around receiving inventory on time during those peak periods during COVID.

So, again, all strategies that are really interesting to look at, but important to understand which ones are most beneficial or potentially can help a company in these types of situations. We've talked a lot, on this podcast in the past, about the role of a CFO in an organization that seems to have been changing a lot over the past few years, and CFOs are no longer viewed as the individual is responsible for the historical P&L and reporting to the bank, right? There's an expectation that CFOs are creating value, are helping with strategy. Not just executing the strategy, but actually developing a growth strategy for companies, so they have a lot more involvement in these elements, and therefore, I think CFOs can play a really, really big role here in scenario planning, right? Which is sort of what we're talking about here with these potential solutions that companies can look at. So, how would you say CFOs today can effectively implement forecasting or scenario planning in their activities, in their almost day-to-day or hour-to-hour life at this point?

Daniel Ma:

I think when we think about, and I'll give you a bit of a backdrop around our financial modeling practice, a lot of times when we're working with clients from a financial modeling perspective, we're really helping to build models that are predicated towards some type of decision being made and so that could be opening a new plant, that could be expanding, that could be selling off a division, that could be raising financing. And so, different scenarios are often created and measured to come up with what we believe are informed decisions that are then being made by the CFO and the broader management team. This is no different in terms of what we're seeing now when we look at what's going on with the tariff situation between Canada, the US, and some of the other countries being Mexico and China as well. When we look at these scenarios, we really would think through, "Well, what are the scenarios that could take place?" Right?

And kind of breaking it down, maybe we'll give an example of how we would look at scenario planning. In this case, there's a couple of scenarios or a few scenarios that have to take place. So, the first scenario is, in 30 days, for whatever reason, the Trump administration decides that we haven't done enough to secure the border and stop the illegal trafficking of fentanyl or other drugs across the border. And so, then the tariffs come into effect, and so the tariffs come into effect. Very likely, the Canadian government would also respond with retaliatory tariffs, and so what does that scenario look like for a company, versus if there are no tariffs, right? And so, that's kind of scenario one versus scenario two. There's probably a spectrum of scenarios in between as well. There could be a scenario where the US puts in tariffs, but Canada doesn't put in tariffs as a retaliatory measure, but you can also look at, "Well, should that scenario really be taken seriously, or should it be eliminated?" Right?

I think when you look at just the polls right now, I believe 82% of Canadians are in favor of retaliatory tariffs, so I think it'd be a little bit of political suicide to just accept American tariffs and not retaliate ourselves, and so maybe that scenario gets written off. When you, then, look at those two scenarios side by side, tariffs on both sides, no tariffs on both sides, we then have to evaluate what are our options under those scenarios? So, it's kind of another layer, right? And so, when we look at the scenarios with the tariffs, you might look at, "Well, one is status quo. We operate as is. We take it on the chin. We pay that 25% tariff, and we hope we can pass it on to our consumers." What does that look like? And so, we're going to have to forecast out what our demand is. We're going to have to forecast out, do we have enough cash to actually pay those tariffs? Do we have to build a buffer? Do we have to get financing? Then, that opens up really some of your other considerations.

Then, you might have a scenario around, for example, we talked about stockpiling. What does that look like, right? So, do I have the funds right now to actually stockpile in advance of paying these tariffs? And so you might look at, well, how much have to the next month or next 30 days, how much am I going to put up in cash? Do I have the cash position to do it? There are associated costs with stockpiling, such as warehousing costs, so, what is going to be my absorption of the goods that I'm selling? Is that going to take place over a pretty long period of time or pretty short period of time? So, how long am I playing these additional warehousing costs are for? Is the added benefit of not paying the tariffs, do those benefits actually outweigh the cost of stockpiling and the additional risk that presents? So, without actually building a model, those questions are very difficult to answer, because some of these are just quantitative analyses.

And so, that's really the crux of scenario planning, right? Is you're really putting it into your head, qualitatively, all the things that can happen. Then, you're trying to come up with strategies to address how you would deal with each of those scenarios, and then, of those strategies, you're obviously going to select the one that presents most favorably. That's just really one side of the equation, because I'm a CPA by trade, I'm a CBP by trade. I love numbers, I love accounting, I love valuations, I love modeling, but there's also the strategic side around understanding all the qualitative impacts of actually executing on the selected strategy. So, I don't envy CFOs right now and the associated management teams. There's a lot of tough decisions to be made in times of uncertainty, but again, this type of planning helps to at least provide a clearer picture in terms of what could happen and how we could actually strategize and attack it.

Anne-Marie Henson:

That's great to know and interesting to see the importance of that. Sometimes you hear, in situations like this, I didn't even mention in the beginning the fact that when Canada announced that it would be responding with retaliatory tariffs, Trump had said, although this wasn't enacted in any way, but he said he would respond with even further tariffs of up to 50%, right? So, he was ready to go even beyond the quite punitive 25%. You sometimes hear things like, in situations where the possibilities are so extreme, it's impossible to plan. I guess, with that mindset, how should CFOs or business owners approach this exercise to be more successful?

Daniel Ma:

Yeah. I think one of the big things is to stress test your assumptions, right? Because right now, at least with the impact of tariffs, the impact really is that we're either paying tariffs, and so it's a cost to us, or we're probably going to sell fewer goods, and so there's going to be a reduction in revenue for us, and so that's going to put strain on cash as an instance. We have to look at, what are the major inputs into our model that we have to stress test? So, for instance, if we're looking to pass the cost of tariffs to customers, how much of it can we pass, and if we are to pass 100 percent of the tariffs to our customers, what's the impact on demand? So, there's a bit of a science there, because you also have to understand the elasticity of that industry, right?

Some industries can bump up the price, whatever, and people aren't going to pay for it. I am a sucker for that. When it comes to Netflix, as an example, I don't think there's a price I wouldn't pay to get that quality streaming, a little shameless plug for Netflix there, but there are other things where the cost of a certain fruit is too expensive. You might eat a different fruit. So, that needs to be stress tested so that you can understand, ultimately, how much is finally coming back to the bottom line, right? How much cash do we have? Are we going to be in a solvent position? Are we going to be able to achieve all of our long-term strategies too, right? Because we're talking from the lens of staying solvent, but that's not all businesses. Some businesses have a great growth plan for 2025 that now we've thrown a wrench into, and so are we able to make the same level of investments as we previously thought we could in a more politically friendly environment?

And so, understanding what are the key inputs, and then building a reasonable stress test around those inputs will allow you to understand, really, how far you can go to push the envelope in terms of the strategies that you want. Again, this is a very common practice on the credit side, for instance. Usually underwriters when they're looking at lending money, they're often doing the same exercise, right? They're looking at, really, what are the key factors affecting this borrower or potential borrower? We would look into if they don't sell us any goods, if the cost goes up, or if for whatever reason an unknown emergency happens within this business, do they have the means to actually pay back their debt obligations, and if not, are we going to lend to them, right? So, it's the same idea here, understanding those key inputs and stress testing them, it really is very paramount in this exercise.

Anne-Marie Henson:

And you've talked about it a little bit. I think it's just maybe important to highlight further. Oftentimes, when these types of situations happen, we talk about the impact to top line revenues, right? Prices might go up, you're going to pass it on to the consumer, but demand will go down. You might have to incur more warehousing costs. You might have to pay more for the goods that you import, in the case of retaliatory tariffs, so all of these have an impact on your bottom line, your profit, but you've already talked about how it impacts your cash flows, right?

You have to pay more upfront cash if you want to stockpile inventory. If you are borrowing more, to be able to do so, you have to pay interest costs and things like that. So, there's a real implication on even the investments you say you want to make. You are planning on upgrading your ERP and you wanted to make a big capital investment, so those are all real cash flow implications of what's happening here. So clearly, it's really important to consider the impact that that could have. What kind of tools would you say CFOs should consider using in these types of situations? I'm sure there are quite complex models. Not everyone necessarily needs the most complex one, but what have you seen in practice?

Daniel Ma:

Yeah, and I think, ultimately, we don't need to over-complicate this. For us, when we're looking at financial models, that's almost anonymous with Microsoft Excel, right? And so, again, as a CPA, I can't comment enough about how much I love my spreadsheets, but it is a very simple exercise, or not necessarily overly simple, but it's a simpler software that I think a lot of CFOs would be accustomed to, and really, the tools that we see are around building three statement models, right? So, really, P&L linked to a balance sheet and, ultimately, linked to cash flow, and it comes down to cash being king and ensuring that there is enough cash to undergo the investments that you want, that there's enough cash to finance your operations. That's typically the tool that we see, and then layered onto that tool or all of the ancillary, I would say, worksheets or calculations that you would have.

So, if you're raising financing, as an example, via debt, you'd obviously want to factor in what your debt obligation will look like over time. That, again, feeds into do we have the cash flow to service our debt? Typically, in times of distress, the companies that are over-levered are the ones that are going to be the first to face financial difficulties. And so, ensuring that you have a simple model that at least captures all of that and allows you the flexibility to sense ties for different inputs, that really is key. So it's a very broad answer I've given in terms of the financial model being an Excel tool. Ultimately, the quality of that tool is dependent on the thought process put into building it, right? It's very easy to just have one revenue line, but have you actually broken out the revenue in the way that we talked about from a top line perspective of change in prices?

How does that relate to demand? And maybe there's different SKUs and maybe there's services that you offer, that are complementary to each other or goods that you offer that are complementary to each other? So, if one good, for example, is not impacted by tariffs, because all the parts are made in Canada, if there's a second good that typically is sold with that first good, where the parts are made in America, that first good probably will see a reduction in demand as well. And so, the thought process behind the model is really the key tool, so I'm going to change my answer. I think Excel is one tool, but the best tool is really your brain, thinking through your business, really understanding all the relevant factors, and making sure that they're incorporated into your model somehow.

Anne-Marie Henson:

That's a great answer, so I like the fact that you changed it, and absolutely. It's great to know though, at minimum, that the tool that you use, again, that's not what's going to solve your problem, or that's not what's going to give you the answer. What's going to give the answer is how well you know your business and how well you understand, like you said, the intricacies of what could happen in these scenarios, and the tool simply helps you put it on paper and understand the dollar impact, so glad you shared that with us here. I think I want to make sure that this conversation isn't just about tariffs. It's so top of mind for so many Canadian businesses today. We've certainly seen this before in other situations. We did talk about the pandemic being one recent situation that we had to see a lot of companies pivot or change the way they do business. Can you give some other examples that you've seen recently where financial modeling could just be really beneficial?

Daniel Ma:

Yeah. The pandemic is the most recent one that comes to mind. We were only three, four years removed from it now, if I'm not mistaken. The official end of that pandemic, it's not necessarily a clear-cut line, but it was something where we had many clients and saw many businesses that were facing these types of decisions around, "What does my business look like in a pandemic and a post-pandemic period?" And so, understanding, even for example, companies that look at our business, right? We have certain costs around being in the office, and suddenly we had a work-from-home type shift as a result of the pandemic, so what does that look like in terms of our office costs? So forecasting that out, understanding what is the best way to move forward is something that is very relevant not just to our clients, but to ourselves as well.

And so, I think the underlying message here is really, in times of uncertainty, whether they are huge, macroeconomic events, whether that is a pandemic, whether that's a financial crisis, whether that is tariffs, it really is important to understand the different scenarios, understand your business, forecast out, stress test, understand how you can adapt your strategy. That's all key, so that's on the large, macroeconomic side, on the more common, day-to-day type models that we typically see, right? We're talking about clients that are investing in a new project, expanding, getting financing, what have you. Those are situations also mired in uncertainty, right? There's no guarantee that, by building a new factory, you are going to be able to have it achieve a hundred percent capacity, sell all the goods, and make a nice little profit. Generally, any decision that you're making, you really need to, again, break it down, understand what are the key levers, make sure that they're captured in your model, and you're building a forecast appropriately. I've built enough models to know that the only thing you can say with certainty about the future is that there will be uncertainty.

Anne-Marie Henson:

Absolutely. Yeah, no it's a good point, Daniel. I guess, maybe, in trying to think of things from a positive light, because there has been a lot of just general anxiety about what's been happening, and the uncertainty is at a scale that we're maybe not accustomed to or not really comfortable with, but outside of the fact that Canadians reactions have been largely quite negative towards the tariffs that were initially announced, and there's been even some unity in Canada about how to respond to that, there could be some silver lining here, and I'd like to explore that a little bit with you. Do you see any potential positives for the Canadian economy should these tariffs actually go through and be put in place?

Daniel Ma:

Yeah. I think we're really looking for the silver lining here, but I think there are some benefits or some positives that we can look towards or look forward towards. One, really, is just we've seen more unity around Canada. We've seen our political parties band together to support retaliatory tariffs, to promote buying domestic, and so whether that is the liberal government basically pushing back on tariffs, or whether that's Doug Ford taking American alcohol out of the LCBO, it seems like all political parties are starting to act a little bit more in unison, and that's a good thing to see. I think it creates less domestic uncertainty in spite of more international uncertainty, so maybe that's one thing I look forward to.

I think the other element too, and this is maybe a little bit more controversial, but the idea that what is really underlying the American desire for tariffs, and one of those is really around border security, but the Trump administration has also spoken to the idea that there are unfair practices being implemented by Canada as it pertains to trade. One such example, for instance, that has been referenced, is our telecom as an example, right? Without me going on a rant about the telecom prices that we pay for internet, mobile, and everything, perhaps there is an avenue where there is more American participation or competition in those spaces. Similarly, there's been similar gripes around American banks not being able to be able to operate in Canada. Although that could have an impact towards our incumbents, for consumers, it could lead to lower pricing, just as a function of more competition. There's silver linings, for sure. These are just a few examples, but I do think that you poll most Canadians in, and I think everyone is looking towards not having tariffs being the better outcome.

Anne-Marie Henson:

Yeah, definitely agree with you there. Just one final question for you, Daniel, to come back to what you would like our listeners to take away, in terms of why business planning is so critical at a time of uncertainty, and for a newer business or one that maybe hasn't been as accustomed to doing this type of planning in the past, where should they start?

Daniel Ma:

I think it's really important, on your first question around why good planning is so critical, especially in times of crisis, because we need a plan to be able to weather the storm. We actually saw this quite a bit during the pandemic, where we had clients that were looking to exit, and the pandemic basically threw a wrench into their plans. The idea was that, "Well, with this pandemic we're expecting values or valuations of companies across the board to just plummet," right? There was a lot of capital sitting on the sidelines. There was probably not going to be a lot of demand to acquire businesses during the pandemic. Similarly, companies were not looking to sell for heavily depressed prices, but what we actually saw, and that was the hypothesis that I just described, what we actually saw was that there was almost a bimodal distribution, right?

You had a lot of companies that were not well managed, that were really just getting through the pandemic as best they could, and you had companies that were very well planned, they were agile, they had tools that help them make great decisions, and companies like that, they actually saw their valuations maintained, if not increased, because what actually happened from a market's perspective is you had all this capital sitting on the sideline, and they were all chasing the good companies, right? So, you want to be in that bucket of a well-managed, adaptable company, a company that is resilient towards political uncertainty, economic uncertainty, whatever it may be, because there's so few of them. So, the ones that are able to stand out, they attracted more suitors during the pandemic than before, and everyone else was just sitting on the sidelines. So I think that really demonstrated how important it is to have a strong plan and a strategy that is adapted to the economics and political times that we're living in.

And so, the second part of your question really was around what's the first step, right? So, what is the first step? I think there's a couple of first steps, to be honest, because it's hard to encapsulate everything into just one baby step, but really, as we think about the tariff situation that we're in now, I think maybe the first step is just to ask yourself, "How do the tariffs affect my business? What are the impacts to my input costs? What are the impacts to the demand for my products?" and understanding that will help you at least start to carve a plan forward. Then, I think the other step, a bit of a shameless plug, is if you need the assistance, there's a suite of professional advisors, like ourselves, who would be more than happy to help out and help navigate these uncertain times, which is, again, something that we see quite often, it seems, more and more in the past few years.

Anne-Marie Henson:

Thanks, Daniel. That's really great advice for companies, so I appreciate you speaking about that, and not a shameless plug at all. I think what we've seen is a lot of business owners, a lot of CFOs today have so many different things to focus on. Sometimes it's better to reach out to service providers who can help them, because they have the specific expertise, and they've done things many times over, and so can better help business owners understand the impact so that they can focus on their strategy, they can focus on growth or different product lines.

An example that we've created in a really quick timeline, actually, because of what's been going on with the tariffs uncertainty is a tool that's called the Tariff Origin Value Analytics, the TOVA tool, which actually helps businesses understand the real impact that these tariffs could have based on the products that were named, where the 25% tariff was originally planned to be imposed on. These are just some examples, but I think it's a really good idea for founders, CFOs to reach out to their service providers and ask for help to see if they can really assist and support them during this time. So Daniel, thank you so much for your time and your input today. I hope our audience appreciated this discussion. If you liked this episode, make sure you leave a review or comment, and click the "Follow Us" or "Subscribe" button to stay tuned for new episodes. Thank you to our listeners for tuning in today and to all of our episodes. I'm Anne-Marie Henson, and this has been BDO's Accounting for the Future. We'll see you next time.