The CEO Poll: Call of duty
Jacqueline Nelson
Canadian Business Online
January 18, 2010
The job market may get worse before it gets better.
Canadian CEOs may not have much to celebrate this New Year’s Eve. A recent Compas Inc. poll of Canadian executives shows that they aren’t optimistic that 2010 will usher in a quick economic turnaround. “Real growth is going to take much longer than was initially predicted,” sums up one business leader who was surveyed.
The vast majority of chief executives believe that by March 2010, Canada’s economic growth rate will either be flat (38% of respondents), or positive but below normal (49% of respondents). By June of next year, 68% predict below-normal growth. “Any recovery will be slow,” affirms one CEO.
The respondents don’t expect a quick rebound for the TSX, either. The TSX composite index has gradually risen since the spring, and it currently sits at about 11,600, but when predicting where it would be by March 2010, the mean score was just 11,641. However, by June, the executives think the TSX will be back on track, with the mean score rising to 13,067. CEOs believe that the unemployment rate, which is currently 8.4%, won’t improve any time soon. In fact, the respondents think it will rise slightly, to 8.6%, by March. Their outlook for June is only slightly better, with a mean score of 8.3% of people out of work. By March of 2011, though, the CEOs expect the jobless rate will fi nally improve, dropping to 7.7%.
The CEOs also weighed in on infl ation. It’s a subject of concern for some economists, who fear that government spending, particularly in the U.S., will spur rapid price increases. However, the executives polled don’t see a big problem. They predict that in March 2010, the Consumer Price Index, which is currently at 0.9%, will be about the same, at 0.8%. By June, they predict a slight rise, to 1.2%.
But respondents do see the federal deficit as an economic drag. When asked if the government’s estimate of the deficit — $ 34 billion as of September — was accurate, executives predicted the shortage will end up being $53 billion. That’s on par with Finance Minister Jim Flaherty’s estimate of $56.2 billion by the fiscal year-end in March.
To view complete results and additional polls, please click here.
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